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Barrett, P S (1992) Measuring the ability gap for construction professionals. Construction Management and Economics, 10(04), 321-42.

Mak, S W and Raftery, J (1992) Risk attitude and systematic bias in estimating and forecasting. Construction Management and Economics, 10(04), 303-20.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: bias; estimating; forecasting; heuristic; risk; uncertainty
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446199200000028
  • Abstract:

    This paper describes findings from the first phase of a research project investigating the modelling of risk and uncertainty in construction estimating and forecasting. The objectives of the project are to examine current methods and, experimentally, to explore techniques which offer the potential for the production of improved information from estimates and forecasts. Some of the causes of error and bias in both traditional deterministic and in probabilistic estimating and forecasting are described. The majority of the research in cognitive psychology estimating and forecasting are described. The majority of the research in cognitive psychology which has led to the common assumption of errors and biases has been carried out with lay people thinking intuitively about problems. The present research is an attempt to test these biases in a domain-specific, non-intuitive contact with individuals trained in the domain. The authors hypothesize that, if professional training has nay value then they should find less evidence of bias than is the case in the general literature. Empirical results are reported and discussed. The work finds empirical support for only some of the biases commonly assume to exist.

Mohsini, R A and Davidson, C H (1992) Determinants of performance in the traditional building process. Construction Management and Economics, 10(04), 343-59.

Russell, A D and Ranasinghe, M (1992) Analytical approach for economic risk quantification of large engineering projects. Construction Management and Economics, 10(04), 277-301.